"Dissecting the effects of phenological shifts on performance across biological scales"
Rising temperatures have dramatically accelerated the phenology of many species, but we still have limited evidence of whether variation in phenological responses really influences population dynamics or macroecological patterns of extinction and spread. Even fewer studies test for individual variability in phenological responsiveness. Since phenology’s potential benefits for species success are common motivations for documenting phenological shifts, we need to consider mechanisms underlying how phenology influences performance across biological scales. Here, I link phenological shifts to performance at three scales: selection on population-level phenology, individual variability in phenology, and phenology’s role in macroecological patterns of invasion and extirpation.